NBC Renew/Cancel: 'Chicago PD' Is a Sure Bet for Renewal in 2016, 'The Blacklist' Isn't Quite

ProgramStatusRenew/ Cancel IndexChicago PD (O)     --The Blacklist    --The Night Shift   --Undateable (F)   --

 The 2015-16 TV season has just begun, and already there are sure bets for renewal? Yes, there are, and here's why: Money.

It's a near-ironclad rule of broadcast TV that if a show will end its third season with 66 episodes (give or take one or two) under its belt, and it's produced by the sister studio of the network where it airs, then it will be renewed for a fourth season. Media conglomerates make more money selling 88 episodes of a show into syndication than they do with 66 episodes, thus the incentive to keep rolling into a fourth year.

"The Blacklist" got battered some when it moved to Thursday nights last season, but it's one of only a few signature shows (and the only one not named "The Voice" or produced by Dick Wolf) in NBC's lineup. So why isn't it a sure bet just yet, while the somewhat lower-rated "Chicago PD" is?

Because of the second half of the criteria listed above. "The Blacklist" comes from Sony, while "Chicago PD" is an in-house production of Universal Television. Though "PD" will only have about 60 episodes by season's end, that's enough to push it over the 80-episode mark in 2016-17 and make it attractive for syndication.

NBC's two other third-season shows, "The Night Shift" and "Undateable," can't be rated more than tossups at the moment. Both come from outside studios (Sony and Warner Bros.) and both will fall well short of the 66-episode mark when they wrap their third seasons.

NBC 2014-15 Predictions Wrap: 'Constantine' Canceled, 'The Mysteries of Laura' and 'Undateable' Renewed

Better to follow the Bear than be chased by him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post's comments, is the place to do that. It's more fun for the bear and reaches far more people.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Key:

sure bet to be canceled by May 2016 likely to be canceled by May 2016  tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016   likely to be renewed by May 2016    sure bet to be renewed by May 2016

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. Why Live+Same Day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

(O) - Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.